结果条件重校准实现关注事件校准概率预测

1. 12:00
   arXiv · Statistics Machine Learning

   通过结果条件重校准实现针对关注事件的校准概率预测

   论文提出结果条件重校准（outcome-conditional recalibration），一种后处理方法，用于在用户定义的结果空间区域上重校准概率预测。该方法将 Kuleshov 等（2018）的分位数重校准应用于条件预测分布，再重新缩放使预测事件概率匹配经验频率，生成在各关注区域内校准的有效且连续预测分布。

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